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[英国]連威爾斯都開始鬧獨立了 [复制链接]

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只看该作者 25 发表于: 2019-09-20
Wexit? Wales could opt for independence if Westminster does not redeem itself

The long-sleeping Welsh dragon is becoming more restive, with a series of polls indicating a growing interest in separation.

Lewis Goodall
Political correspondent

Monday 16 September 2019 09:59, UK
BREXITWALES

In 2013 Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party said: "Could Wales flourish as an independent nation? We think that Wales can. We have recently celebrated the first 10 years of devolution - but we believe that the next 10 years will be the real decade of change. Wales and her people are ready and willing to ask the difficult questions - and also to come up with the solutions."

At the time, few paid any attention. In 2013 even Scottish independence seemed a relatively far-fetched idea; the drama of the referendum campaign was still to come. The idea of 'Wexit' seemed even more preposterous. Wales has not been anything close to an independent state since 1282.

Its nationalism, insofar as it had existed and been successful, had largely contained itself to questions of culture rather than politics, with a focus on protecting the Welsh language and cultural life more broadly.

EU membership has thus become a segment, if not the primary driver of the culture war
Yet of late, the long-sleeping Welsh dragon is becoming more restive. A series of polls have indicated a growing interest in the idea of separation. A poll published yesterday indicated that if Wales' status within the EU could be assured, 40% of those who expressed a view (around 30% if you include those without) would opt for independence.

Less than a decade ago, some polls put support for such an idea in the single digits. The idea has been gaining more traction since but the acceleration is interesting. It has been accompanied by a series of marches and demonstrations in favour of separation. It has been a slow boiling but potentially major development in British politics.

Think of Wales' part in the union as the ultimate stress test. Scotland may have been semi-detached for some time; since 1922 Northern Ireland has had a unique status and history of contestation but Wales has been politically stitched to England for nigh on a millennium.

So if Wales is wavering, it gives some impression of the considerable burden the union is bearing right now. The loosening of our national bonds has much to do with Brexit: its effect has been threefold, each to the detriment of the union.

Firstly, it has exposed Westminster's deepest fragility; its incapacity to deal with the Brexit crisis has had a profound impact on the prestige of the Westminster model and our own institutions in the minds of virtually all voters, with those in the nations no exception.

The actions of government ministers and MPs, in whatever form, have contributed to its discredit as a governing model.

Many English people might sympathise with Scots, Welsh and Irish who look at Westminster and think, I would love to escape it. They, unlike the English, have a potential lever to pull.

Secondly, it has highlighted an old sore: the nations' relative political unimportance in the House of Commons. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland together, barely equate to a fifth of England's MPs.

Frankly, their views can be overridden easily, there just isn't the clout. Time and again, the government in particular has seemed utterly indifferent to the starkly different politics of the nations, especially apropos the European question. That's despite the fact that in the Conservatives' case, had they not won 12 new seats north of the border in 2017, they would not be in government now.

The lack of senior Scottish or Welsh voices around the cabinet table (compare this to almost any period in the last century) emphasise this too. Simply put, as with the referendum itself, demographic power means England will always be king.

And third, curiously, the Brexit process has somewhat rehabilitated the EU's reputation with regards to its treatment of smaller states. Nationalists across Europe, far from seeing Brussels as yet another imperial power seeking to erode their national identities, have come in recent decades to see it as a guarantor of nationhood and the rights of small states.

This reputation appeared lost after the Greek crisis (remember the now quaint-sounding 'Grexit'?); but the perception has taken root that Ireland's voice and power has been massively enhanced during the Brexit standoff and that the EU's wholehearted support has helped see off its larger, more powerful neighbour. The EU is seen as a means of equalising power between larger and smaller states and is thus attractive to nationalist movements in Britain.

And this is why the union may prove so unstable in the long term. Brexit has introduced a new and potentially long-lasting cleavage into British politics.

Whereas before concern about the EU was a minority if not eccentric pursuit, it has become nearly ubiquitous. Indeed a whole new type of voter has been created; those who see our membership of the EU as a fundamental political fixture, a part of their identities.

EU membership has thus become a segment, if not the primary driver of the culture war. Even if we leave, if nationalism comes to be seen as a means of winning that culture war, of regaining what was lost, the British state, as an obstacle in its way, could easily fall.

For Brexit has taken away the two fundamental assets of unionism: in the Scottish referendum, the basic virtue of those arguing for the UK was that the British state offered political stability and reliability.

Today, it is Westminster not Holyrood or Cardiff Bay which looks like the bigger risk.

Secondly, in years gone by nationalism was seen as the insular force, a nativist one even.

But Brexit has recast nationalism and nationalists as those who wish to be part of the greater continental whole, not an island with its inward-looking nation state. No talk of 'global Britain' can compensate for that.

To many liberal-minded and left wing voters, nationalism now appears more cosmopolitan and offers a potential escape route from a Westminster which seems destined to be painted an ever deeper shade of Tory (and at that a right-wing Tory) blue. We have arrived at the odd place where being a Scottish or Welsh nationalist is synonymous with being a globalist, for eschewing nationalism.

And so perhaps, the most interesting finding of the recent Welsh polling is that over 40% of Labour voters from 2017 would back independence with EU membership attached. This should send alarm bells ringing in Labour's offices in Cardiff and London.

It seems eerily reminiscent of what happened to the party in Scotland. If voters on the liberal left come to believe that there is no longer salvation for their brand of politics to be had in Westminster and the parties charged with preserving it, they might look elsewhere.

Labour is still reeling from its losses in Scotland; it will be dealt a near terminal blow if Wales goes the same way. A source from Plaid Cymru told me that they're seeing Labour voters more and more receptive to their separatist message: "We used to shy away from it…but now they are not shutting you down when you raise it, they are much more open to the idea than they have ever been before. It has gone from anti-politics to anti-Westminster."

The theme of the mid to late 2010s has been Britain's unravelling within the European club, our berth for nearly half a century. If Westminster does not redeem itself, if it does not think big about the union - and fast - the theme of the 2020s, will be the unravelling of Britain as a multi-nation state itself, our berth for two and a half centuries more.

https://news.sky.com/story/wexit-wales-could-opt-for-independence-if-westminster-does-not-redeem-itself-11809164
东南军政长官,兼行政院东部联合服务中心主任、台湾省政府主席、浙江省大陈区行政督察专员、福建省金门军管区行政公署行政长、福建省马祖守备区战地政务委员会主任委员、台湾省梨山建设管理局局长、台北市阳明山管理局局长。
只看该作者 26 发表于: 2019-10-18
威爾斯黨原打算 2030 年前舉行獨立公投

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-49919125

威爾斯黨現在打算跟蘇格蘭一起在同日舉行獨立公投

https://www.thenational.scot/news/17970828.plaid-cymru-push-joint-independence-referendum/

現在的威爾斯政府建議還是舉行公投吧, 因為真舉行獨派贏不了公投, 但不舉行的話獨派可能會取得威爾斯議會多數

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-50013949
东南军政长官,兼行政院东部联合服务中心主任、台湾省政府主席、浙江省大陈区行政督察专员、福建省金门军管区行政公署行政长、福建省马祖守备区战地政务委员会主任委员、台湾省梨山建设管理局局长、台北市阳明山管理局局长。
只看该作者 27 发表于: 2019-10-18
建议爱尔兰一国两制
只看该作者 28 发表于: 2019-10-18
回 murano 的帖子
murano:建议爱尔兰一国两制 (2019-10-18 10:11) 

现在英欧协议差不多就是这样。北爱地位特殊。
人类从历史中学到的唯一教训就是,人类无法从历史中学到任何教训,总是重复同样的悲剧
只看该作者 29 发表于: 2019-11-04
威尔士的自治权本来就很小,这样闹下去不如英国成立联邦
只看该作者 30 发表于: 2020-04-10
这种闹估计仅仅是想要点奶吃吧……
只看该作者 31 发表于: 2020-04-10
回 晦象先生 的帖子
晦象先生:建议uk 拆分为英格兰王国、苏格兰王国、威尔士王国,北爱尔兰独立或成为爱尔兰一部分。
英王是三个王国的名义元首,但三个政府是独立的。 (2019-09-01 11:39) 

威尔士大公国,仍然以英国王储威尔士大公为元首。查大锤终于可以当上国家元首了。
只看该作者 32 发表于: 2020-04-10
回 奇櫻 的帖子
奇櫻:無破不立
好多人之見二戰後只有更多國家分離、自立,但卻不見另一邊廂國與國之間亦不斷靠攏抱團;
歐盟早在二戰結束就開始抱團,雖然直至1990年後才逐步接近現在大家認知的歐盟,但1990年代以後的一體化卻猶如才坐火箭般高速推進;
....... (2019-09-01 17:07) 

一个新冠肺炎,把欧盟抱团取暖的神话无情击破。
人类从历史中学到的唯一教训就是,人类无法从历史中学到任何教训,总是重复同样的悲剧
只看该作者 33 发表于: 2020-08-17
2020年7月20日星期一

盧楚仁:威爾斯要獨立 英臨分裂局面

【明報專訊】上星期終於有時間辦理續領BNO護照手續,續領BNO主要是方便我將來逗留在檳城歎世界,因為拿特區護照入境馬來西亞,每次只可以逗留一個月,但拿BNO入境的話,便可每次逗留三個月。對於我來說,3個月十分足夠了,到期的話可能去新加坡或者泰國一轉,甚至回港一趟後再入境。最近續領BNO人數急增,因為英國政府放寬港人入境,因此很多港人都有意移居英國,尤其是有子女的父母。

說到英國,除了疫情之外,現在英國所面對的政經問題可不少,政治上有脫歐和蘇格蘭醞釀獨立的問題,經濟上又遇上300年來最大的衰退。禍不單行,上星期四又多一單極具震撼性的新聞,就是英國威爾斯議會首次討論獨立動議。報道指威爾斯議會史上首次討論獨立動議,獨立動議由主張威爾斯獨立的威爾斯黨所提出,要求威爾斯議會下屆立法舉行有約束力的獨立公投。當地民意調查顯示,認為威爾斯政府的抗疫手法比英國政府好得多,因此威爾斯人對英國政府漸趨不滿,令到獨立的呼聲與日俱增。

當地最新民調顯示,支持獨立的威爾斯民意創新高達25%,比起年初時增加4個百分點,但相對於蘇格蘭民眾要求獨立的54%仍然較低。以此趨勢判斷,明年要求威爾斯獨立的民眾估計將會上破30%。當中主要原因是英國經濟不景氣,以及脫歐問題令威爾斯人萌生走回獨立之路。

威爾斯和蘇格蘭一樣,原本是一個獨立王國。在1282年,威爾斯被當時的英格蘭國王愛德華一世征服及吞併至今,成為大英帝國的一部分。但合併738年後,因大英帝國國力已日落黃昏,因此繼蘇格蘭和北愛爾蘭之後,威爾斯終於也想和英國說分手。但當然,輪到問題的嚴重性,一定不及蘇格蘭的獨立運動,因當地民意已經超過一半要求脫離英國獨立,故一旦舉行具法律效力的獨立公投的話,後果將不堪設想。

蘇格蘭獨立民意續漲 或再辦公投
有樂觀人士認為,約翰遜不會讓蘇格蘭舉行獨立公投。但要留意,情况就如當年卡梅倫一樣,他最終在民意壓力下讓蘇格蘭舉行獨立公投。所以,作為西方民主國家,民意大於一切,因此我絕對不會掉以輕心認為蘇格蘭一定不能舉辦第二次脫英獨立公投。

上星期一的蘇格蘭《每日記事報》報道指出,在新冠病毒疫情衝擊下,蘇格蘭民眾要求脫離英國獨立的呼聲有增無減。當地有議員甚至不滿蘇格蘭民族黨領導人施雅晴,要求盡快成立新的政黨進一步推動實現獨立公投。估計明年英國正式脫歐之後,估計蘇格蘭要求獨立的民意可能接近60%至70%,到時英國政府難以對抗龐大的民意壓力,而有機會讓蘇格蘭再次舉行獨立公投。

在蘇格蘭方面,當地仍然堅持能夠在2021年5月蘇格蘭議會選舉前舉行脫英公投。根據英國《每日快報》上星期一所報道,主張脫英獨立的蘇格蘭民族黨目前仍然是佔有絕對優勢,有望在明年大選中取得破紀錄的議席。故英國目前千瘡百孔的問題下,我更加不會改變對英鎊長期悲觀的看法。當然,不排除短線因美股強令美元弱,而導致英鎊水鬼升城隍,亦因如此,或造就投資者可以趁高有靚價沽英鎊。

長線看淡 宜趁高沽英鎊
現在中英因香港及華為問題鬧得面紅耳熱,關係急轉直下,估計中方會向英方作出一連串經濟上的反制及報復措施,令英國經濟會進一步受到打擊。有聲音指出,未來有大量港人移居英國會帶動當地經濟及樓價,相信也是言之尚早,因為相關政策的細則尚未公布,就算是所謂利好,相信也是短期的刺激。長遠來說,英國的四分五裂才是致命傷。

資深外匯及商品獨立分析師
[盧楚仁 金匯商情]

https://news.mingpao.com/pns/%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F/article/20200720/s00004/1595183494336/%E7%9B%A7%E6%A5%9A%E4%BB%81-%E5%A8%81%E7%88%BE%E6%96%AF%E8%A6%81%E7%8D%A8%E7%AB%8B-%E8%8B%B1%E8%87%A8%E5%88%86%E8%A3%82%E5%B1%80%E9%9D%A2
东南军政长官,兼行政院东部联合服务中心主任、台湾省政府主席、浙江省大陈区行政督察专员、福建省金门军管区行政公署行政长、福建省马祖守备区战地政务委员会主任委员、台湾省梨山建设管理局局长、台北市阳明山管理局局长。
只看该作者 34 发表于: 01-09
苏格兰独立之日,就是工党完蛋之时……这也是为什么工党如此反对硬脱欧
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