[综合]根据中国人寿保险业经验生命表推算的中国人口分年龄组预期寿命 [复制链接]

先厘清几个基本概念：

预期寿命：假若当前的年龄别死亡率保持不变，一个人预期能继续生存的平均年数。健康预期寿命是一个相关统计数，是根据当前人口死亡率和健康状况分布来估计一个人预期能继续健康生存的相等的生命年数。 通常所说的“人口平均预期寿命”是指0岁组人口的预期寿命。（WHO定义）

国家统计局历年统计年鉴发布的数据只包括历年中国人口0岁组预期寿命，而没有公布过分年龄组的预期寿命值。由于各年龄组别的死亡率有着较大差距，不同年龄组预期寿命与当前年龄之和（也即预期死亡年龄）会有较大差异。这也是制作本表的意义所在。

生命表：通常以10万（或100万）人作为0岁的生存人数，然后根据各年中死亡人数，各年末生存人数计算各年龄人口的死亡率、生存率，列成表格，直至此10万全部死亡为止。生命表上所记载的死亡率、生存率是决定人寿保险费的重要依据。是反映一个国家或一个区域人口生存死亡规律的调查统计表。

中国没有公布覆盖全体人口的生命表数据，而保险业界根据2000-2003年间大量保险业务数据资料，推算制定了《中国人寿保险业经验生命表（2000-2003）》，以反映参加人寿保险人群的寿命情况。该表分养老金业务和非养老金业务两组，每组均分男女两张表。

下表取自中国保监会网站：http://www.circ.gov.cn/web/site0/tab480/i107393.htm                                                                                                                                                          

年龄	非养老金业务表		养老金业务表
	男(CL1)	女(CL2)	男(CL3)	女(CL4)
0	0.000722	0.000661	0.000627	0.000575
1	0.000603	0.000536	0.000525	0.000466
2	0.000499	0.000424	0.000434	0.000369
3	0.000416	0.000333	0.000362	0.000290
4	0.000358	0.000267	0.000311	0.000232
5	0.000323	0.000224	0.000281	0.000195
6	0.000309	0.000201	0.000269	0.000175
7	0.000308	0.000189	0.000268	0.000164
8	0.000311	0.000181	0.000270	0.000158
9	0.000312	0.000175	0.000271	0.000152
10	0.000312	0.000169	0.000272	0.000147
11	0.000312	0.000165	0.000271	0.000143
12	0.000313	0.000165	0.000272	0.000143
13	0.000320	0.000169	0.000278	0.000147
14	0.000336	0.000179	0.000292	0.000156
15	0.000364	0.000192	0.000316	0.000167
16	0.000404	0.000208	0.000351	0.000181
17	0.000455	0.000226	0.000396	0.000196
18	0.000513	0.000245	0.000446	0.000213
19	0.000572	0.000264	0.000497	0.000230
20	0.000621	0.000283	0.000540	0.000246
21	0.000661	0.000300	0.000575	0.000261
22	0.000692	0.000315	0.000601	0.000274
23	0.000716	0.000328	0.000623	0.000285
24	0.000738	0.000338	0.000643	0.000293
25	0.000759	0.000347	0.000660	0.000301
26	0.000779	0.000355	0.000676	0.000308
27	0.000795	0.000362	0.000693	0.000316
28	0.000815	0.000372	0.000712	0.000325
29	0.000842	0.000386	0.000734	0.000337
30	0.000881	0.000406	0.000759	0.000351
31	0.000932	0.000432	0.000788	0.000366
32	0.000994	0.000465	0.000820	0.000384
33	0.001055	0.000496	0.000855	0.000402

年龄	非养老金业务表		养老金业务表
	男(CL1)	女(CL2)	男(CL3)	女(CL4)
34	0.001121	0.000528	0.000893	0.000421
35	0.001194	0.000563	0.000936	0.000441
36	0.001275	0.000601	0.000985	0.000464
37	0.001367	0.000646	0.001043	0.000493
38	0.001472	0.000699	0.001111	0.000528
39	0.001589	0.000761	0.001189	0.000569
40	0.001715	0.000828	0.001275	0.000615
41	0.001845	0.000897	0.001366	0.000664
42	0.001978	0.000966	0.001461	0.000714
43	0.002113	0.001033	0.001560	0.000763
44	0.002255	0.001103	0.001665	0.000815
45	0.002413	0.001181	0.001783	0.000873
46	0.002595	0.001274	0.001918	0.000942
47	0.002805	0.001389	0.002055	0.001014
48	0.003042	0.001527	0.002238	0.001123
49	0.003299	0.001690	0.002446	0.001251
50	0.003570	0.001873	0.002666	0.001393
51	0.003847	0.002074	0.002880	0.001548
52	0.004132	0.002295	0.003085	0.001714
53	0.004434	0.002546	0.003300	0.001893
54	0.004778	0.002836	0.003545	0.002093
55	0.005203	0.003178	0.003838	0.002318
56	0.005744	0.003577	0.004207	0.002607
57	0.006427	0.004036	0.004676	0.002979
58	0.007260	0.004556	0.005275	0.003410
59	0.008229	0.005133	0.006039	0.003816
60	0.009313	0.005768	0.006989	0.004272
61	0.010490	0.006465	0.007867	0.004781
62	0.011747	0.007235	0.008725	0.005351
63	0.013091	0.008094	0.009677	0.005988
64	0.014542	0.009059	0.010731	0.006701
65	0.016134	0.010148	0.011900	0.007499
66	0.017905	0.011376	0.013229	0.008408
67	0.019886	0.012760	0.014705	0.009438
68	0.022103	0.014316	0.016344	0.010592
69	0.024571	0.016066	0.018164	0.011886
70	0.027309	0.018033	0.020184	0.013337
71	0.030340	0.020241	0.022425	0.014964
72	0.033684	0.022715	0.024911	0.016787
年龄	非养老金业务表		养老金业务表
	男(CL1)	女(CL2)	男(CL3)		女(CL4)
73	0.037371	0.025479	0.027668		0.018829
74	0.041430	0.028561	0.030647		0.021117
75	0.045902	0.031989	0.033939		0.023702
76	0.050829	0.035796	0.037577		0.026491
77	0.056262	0.040026	0.041594		0.029602
78	0.062257	0.044726	0.046028		0.033070
79	0.068871	0.049954	0.050920		0.036935
80	0.076187	0.055774	0.056312		0.041241
81	0.084224	0.062253	0.062253		0.046033
82	0.093071	0.069494	0.068791		0.051365
83	0.102800	0.077511	0.075983		0.057291
84	0.113489	0.086415	0.083883		0.063872
85	0.125221	0.096294	0.092554		0.071174
86	0.138080	0.107243	0.102059		0.079267
87	0.152157	0.119364	0.112464		0.088225
88	0.167543	0.132763	0.123836		0.098129
89	0.184333	0.147553	0.136246		0.109061
90	0.202621	0.163850	0.149763		0.121107
91	0.222500	0.181775	0.164456		0.134355
92	0.244059	0.201447	0.180392		0.148896
93	0.267383	0.222987	0.197631		0.164816
94	0.292544	0.246507	0.216228		0.182201
95	0.319604	0.272115	0.236229		0.201129
96	0.348606	0.299903	0.257666		0.221667
97	0.379572	0.329942	0.280553		0.243870
98	0.412495	0.362281	0.304887		0.267773
99	0.447334	0.396933	0.330638		0.293385
100	0.484010	0.433869	0.357746		0.320685
101	0.522397	0.473008	0.386119		0.349615
102	0.562317	0.514211	0.415626		0.380069
103	0.603539	0.557269	0.446094		0.411894
104	0.645770	0.601896	0.477308		0.444879
105	1.000000	1.000000	1.000000		1.000000

                                                                                                                                              

上表各年龄组别后对应数字为死亡率（m_x）。通过各年龄组别死亡率推算预期寿命有多种方法，这里采用上海统计局计算上海市人口预期寿命采用的蒋氏法。
http://www.stats-sh.gov.cn/tjzx/201103/86152.html

第一步，将人口数按照不同年龄进行分组，分成0岁组，1－4岁组，5－9岁组，……。并利用公安部门提供的当年户籍人口数和构成比，以及由上海市疾病控制中心提供的死亡资料，计算出各年龄组的死亡率（m_x）；
第二步，根据各年龄组死亡率求得年龄组死亡概率（q_x）。说明X岁尚存者在今后一年内的死亡概率。计算公式：
　　　2 m_x
q_x＝────
　　　2＋m_x
第三步，假定0岁组的尚存人数为10万，计算各年龄组的死亡人数(d_x)和尚存人数（l_x）。计算公式：d_x＝l_x× q_x；l_x+1=l_x－d_x
第四步，计算各年龄组的生存人年数(L_x)以及生存总人年数((T_x)。生存人年数表示X岁尚存者在今后一年（或n年）内的生存人年数。计算公式：L_x=1/2(l_x+l_x+1)；T_x=∑L_x
第五步，计算平均预期寿命（e_x）。计算公式：e_x＝ T_x / l_x

年龄组	非养老金业务男性		非养老金业务女性		养老金业务男性		养老金业务女性
	预期寿命	预期死亡年龄	预期寿命	预期死亡年龄	预期寿命	预期死亡年龄	预期寿命	预期死亡年龄
0	76.9608	76.9608	81.1414	81.1414	79.9891	79.9891	83.9180	83.9180
1	76.0160	77.0160	80.1947	81.1947	79.0390	80.0390	82.9660	83.9660
2	75.0616	77.0616	79.2374	81.2374	78.0802	80.0802	82.0045	84.0045
3	74.0988	77.0988	78.2708	81.2708	77.1139	80.1139	81.0345	84.0345
4	73.1294	77.1294	77.2967	81.2967	76.1416	80.1416	80.0579	84.0579
5	72.1554	77.1554	76.3172	81.3172	75.1652	80.1652	79.0764	84.0764
6	71.1785	77.1785	75.3342	81.3342	74.1862	80.1862	78.0917	84.0917
7	70.2004	77.2004	74.3493	81.3493	73.2060	80.2060	77.1053	84.1053
8	69.2219	77.2219	73.3632	81.3632	72.2255	80.2255	76.1178	84.1178
9	68.2432	77.2432	72.3764	81.3764	71.2448	80.2448	75.1298	84.1298
10	67.2644	77.2644	71.3890	81.3890	70.2640	80.2640	74.1411	84.1411
11	66.2852	77.2852	70.4010	81.4010	69.2830	80.2830	73.1519	84.1519
12	65.3057	77.3057	69.4125	81.4125	68.3016	80.3016	72.1623	84.1623
13	64.3260	77.3260	68.4239	81.4239	67.3201	80.3201	71.1726	84.1726
14	63.3465	77.3465	67.4354	81.4354	66.3387	80.3387	70.1830	84.1830
15	62.3676	77.3676	66.4473	81.4473	65.3579	80.3579	69.1938	84.1938
16	61.3901	77.3901	65.4600	81.4600	64.3784	80.3784	68.2053	84.2053
17	60.4147	77.4147	64.4735	81.4735	63.4008	80.4008	67.2176	84.2176
18	59.4420	77.4420	63.4880	81.4880	62.4257	80.4257	66.2306	84.2306
19	58.4722	77.4722	62.5034	81.5034	61.4533	80.4533	65.2446	84.2446
20	57.5054	77.5054	61.5198	81.5198	60.4836	80.4836	64.2595	84.2595
21	56.5408	77.5408	60.5371	81.5371	59.5160	80.5160	63.2752	84.2752
22	55.5778	77.5778	59.5551	81.5551	58.5500	80.5500	62.2916	84.2916
23	54.6160	77.6160	58.5737	81.5737	57.5849	80.5849	61.3085	84.3085
24	53.6547	77.6547	57.5927	81.5927	56.6205	80.6205	60.3259	84.3259
25	52.6940	77.6940	56.6120	81.6120	55.6566	80.6566	59.3434	84.3434
26	51.7336	77.7336	55.6315	81.6315	54.6930	80.6930	58.3611	84.3611
27	50.7735	77.7735	54.6511	81.6511	53.7296	80.7296	57.3789	84.3789
28	49.8135	77.8135	53.6707	81.6707	52.7665	80.7665	56.3969	84.3969
29	48.8537	77.8537	52.6905	81.6905	51.8038	80.8038	55.4151	84.4151
30	47.8945	77.8945	51.7106	81.7106	50.8414	80.8414	54.4336	84.4336
31	46.9362	77.9362	50.7314	81.7314	49.8796	80.8796	53.4525	84.4525
32	45.9795	77.9795	49.7531	81.7531	48.9186	80.9186	52.4719	84.4719
33	45.0248	78.0248	48.7760	81.7760	47.9583	80.9583	51.4919	84.4919
34	44.0718	78.0718	47.8000	81.8000	46.9989	80.9989	50.5124	84.5124
35	43.1206	78.1206	46.8250	81.8250	46.0404	81.0404	49.5334	84.5334
36	42.1715	78.1715	45.8510	81.8510	45.0831	81.0831	48.5551	84.5551
37	41.2247	78.2247	44.8783	81.8783	44.1270	81.1270	47.5774	84.5774
38	40.2804	78.2804	43.9070	81.9070	43.1725	81.1725	46.6006	84.6006
39	39.3390	78.3390	42.9373	81.9373	42.2200	81.2200	45.6249	84.6249
40	38.4008	78.4008	41.9696	81.9696	41.2696	81.2696	44.6506	84.6506
41	37.4658	78.4658	41.0040	82.0040	40.3216	81.3216	43.6778	84.6778
42	36.5341	78.5341	40.0403	82.0403	39.3761	81.3761	42.7065	84.7065
43	35.6055	78.6055	39.0786	82.0786	38.4329	81.4329	41.7366	84.7366
44	34.6797	78.6797	38.1184	82.1184	37.4921	81.4921	40.7681	84.7681
45	33.7569	78.7569	37.1599	82.1599	36.5538	81.5538	39.8009	84.8009
46	32.8372	78.8372	36.2033	82.2033	35.6181	81.6181	38.8352	84.8352
47	31.9212	78.9212	35.2488	82.2488	34.6855	81.6855	37.8714	84.8714
48	31.0095	79.0095	34.2971	82.2971	33.7558	81.7558	36.9093	84.9093
49	30.1025	79.1025	33.3487	82.3487	32.8304	81.8304	35.9502	84.9502
50	29.2003	79.2003	32.4043	82.4043	31.9095	81.9095	34.9946	84.9946
51	28.3029	79.3029	31.4641	82.4641	30.9934	81.9934	34.0427	85.0427
52	27.4101	79.4101	30.5284	82.5284	30.0813	82.0813	33.0946	85.0946
53	26.5215	79.5215	29.5974	82.5974	29.1727	82.1727	32.1505	85.1505
54	25.6371	79.6371	28.6716	82.6716	28.2675	82.2675	31.2105	85.2105
55	24.7575	79.7575	27.7516	82.7516	27.3661	82.3661	30.2749	85.2749
56	23.8841	79.8841	26.8383	82.8383	26.4694	82.4694	29.3439	85.3439
57	23.0188	80.0188	25.9327	82.9327	25.5789	82.5789	28.4192	85.4192
58	22.1640	80.1640	25.0355	83.0355	24.6965	82.6965	27.5025	85.5025
59	21.3218	80.3218	24.1476	83.1476	23.8244	82.8244	26.5948	85.5948
60	20.4939	80.4939	23.2693	83.2693	22.9657	82.9657	25.6945	85.6945
61	19.6809	80.6809	22.4010	83.4010	22.1233	83.1233	24.8024	85.8024
62	18.8832	80.8832	21.5430	83.5430	21.2941	83.2941	23.9189	85.9189
63	18.1004	81.1004	20.6958	83.6958	20.4763	83.4763	23.0445	86.0445
64	17.3324	81.3324	19.8600	83.8600	19.6705	83.6705	22.1799	86.1799
65	16.5789	81.5789	19.0361	84.0361	18.8774	83.8774	21.3257	86.3257
66	15.8405	81.8405	18.2252	84.2252	18.0974	84.0974	20.4825	86.4825
67	15.1176	82.1176	17.4280	84.4280	17.3317	84.3317	19.6512	86.6512
68	14.4112	82.4112	16.6454	84.6454	16.5810	84.5810	18.8328	86.8328
69	13.7221	82.7221	15.8782	84.8782	15.8460	84.8460	18.0280	87.0280
70	13.0511	83.0511	15.1273	85.1273	15.1273	85.1273	17.2376	87.2376
71	12.3986	83.3986	14.3934	85.3934	14.4256	85.4256	16.4623	87.4623
72	11.7651	83.7651	13.6775	85.6775	13.7414	85.7414	15.7030	87.7030
73	11.1511	84.1511	12.9803	85.9803	13.0754	86.0754	14.9603	87.9603
74	10.5567	84.5567	12.3024	86.3024	12.4282	86.4282	14.2352	88.2352
75	9.9822	84.9822	11.6444	86.6444	11.7995	86.7995	13.5283	88.5283
76	9.4276	85.4276	11.0067	87.0067	11.1896	87.1896	12.8408	88.8408
77	8.8933	85.8933	10.3896	87.3896	10.5990	87.5990	12.1721	89.1721
78	8.3791	86.3791	9.7935	87.7935	10.0280	88.0280	11.5229	89.5229
79	7.8854	86.8854	9.2187	88.2187	9.4769	88.4769	10.8935	89.8935
80	7.4122	87.4122	8.6654	88.6654	8.9459	88.9459	10.2846	90.2846
81	6.9597	87.9597	8.1339	89.1339	8.4353	89.4353	9.6966	90.6966
82	6.5277	88.5277	7.6244	89.6244	7.9451	89.9451	9.1300	91.1300
83	6.1161	89.1161	7.1373	90.1373	7.4756	90.4756	8.5849	91.5849
84	5.7247	89.7247	6.6725	90.6725	7.0265	91.0265	8.0618	92.0618
85	5.3533	90.3533	6.2300	91.2300	6.5979	91.5979	7.5607	92.5607
86	5.0016	91.0016	5.8096	91.8096	6.1897	92.1897	7.0818	93.0818
87	4.6693	91.6693	5.4113	92.4113	5.8016	92.8016	6.6250	93.6250
88	4.3559	92.3559	5.0348	93.0348	5.4334	93.4334	6.1904	94.1904
89	4.0610	93.0610	4.6796	93.6796	5.0846	94.0846	5.7776	94.7776
90	3.7840	93.7840	4.3455	94.3455	4.7549	94.7549	5.3863	95.3863
91	3.5245	94.5245	4.0318	95.0318	4.4438	95.4438	5.0162	96.0162
92	3.2817	95.2817	3.7380	95.7380	4.1504	96.1504	4.6667	96.6667
93	3.0549	96.0549	3.4633	96.4633	3.8742	96.8742	4.3370	97.3370
94	2.8435	96.8435	3.2070	97.2070	3.6142	97.6142	4.0262	98.0262
95	2.6465	97.6465	2.9681	97.9681	3.3692	98.3692	3.7331	98.7331
96	2.4630	98.4630	2.7455	98.7455	3.1378	99.1378	3.4561	99.4561
97	2.2918	99.2918	2.5377	99.5377	2.9180	99.9180	3.1930	100.1930
98	2.1312	100.1312	2.3428	100.3428	2.7070	100.7070	2.9410	100.9410
99	1.9789	100.9789	2.1581	101.1581	2.5010	101.5010	2.6956	101.6956
100	1.8311	101.8311	1.9792	101.9792	2.2936	102.2936	2.4505	102.4505
101	1.6810	102.6810	1.7988	102.7988	2.0750	103.0750	2.1955	103.1955
102	1.5161	103.5161	1.6035	103.6035	1.8286	103.8286	1.9138	103.9138
103	1.3109	104.3109	1.3673	104.3673	1.5257	104.5257	1.5773	104.5773
104	1.0118	105.0118	1.0373	105.0373	1.1147	105.1147	1.1361	105.1361
105	0.5000	105.5000	0.5000	105.5000	0.5000	105.5000	0.5000	105.5000

使用说明：因《中国人寿保险业经验生命表（2000-2003）》编制采用的数据取自2000-2003年间，故应以2000减去目标人出生年份，取得对应年龄组别，从而获取预期寿命值。

这个数据是保险公司计算费率用的，样本都是买了保险的，跟整个社会的情况出入很大好不
否则保险公司也不要用费力做这个统计，直接把政府的统计数字拿来不更省力？

看不懂啊，请直接说结论吧

引用第4楼mrwuya于2012-07-03 09:00发表的  :
这个数据是保险公司计算费率用的，样本都是买了保险的，跟整个社会的情况出入很大好不
否则保险公司也不要用费力做这个统计，直接把政府的统计数字拿来不更省力？

对，不过本坛覆盖人群和人寿/养老保险的覆盖人群重合度我估计还是比较高的，估算下正常水平自己还有多少年好活不能说没用吧？

引用第5楼宇文含春于2012-07-03 13:07发表的  :
看不懂啊，请直接说结论吧

请直接看最后面那张表，通过某人在2000年年龄，可以得出在对应年龄组、性别中得出相应的预期寿命和平均死亡年龄。